Cyberpunk 2 will have to be smaller

[Sesshomurai]

CDPR have said that they see cyberpunk roadmap taking shape like witcher in terms of each new version being bigger and better than the last.

But this isnt going to be possible. The realities prevent it. Let me explain.

Cyberpunk 2077 cost around $350M and has sold 25M copies for $1.5B or 4.2x investment. Not great not terrible.
(As an aside 2077 really needed a content store).

If cyberpunk 2 will be 2x the size and/or length of 2077 then it will cost north of $700M. Accounting for rising costs closer to $1B.

Even IF (a big IF) cyberpunk 2 sells 25 million units. Thats $1.5B revenue on $1B invested and thats not counting the lost time. All of that equals A TERRIBLE investment and return.

This is why I keep suggesting it needs to go the live service route (done right hopefully).

The old model of bigger AAA games is dead and unsustainable.

Focus on smaller more polished experiences with online and repeatable value.

 

[Tarille]

it needs to go the live service route

The old model of bigger AAA games is dead and unsustainable.

I don't know...

FromSoft, Larian, Rockstar, Nintendo all beg to differ. Each of their games gets bigger and more grandioise and they seem to be doing well. Meanwhile all the Live Service focused companies like Ubisoft and Blizzard have been suffering...

As an aside, GTA6 is already reportedly costing more than $2B in development. You crying about a CP2 costing $1B and being terrible returns is laughable in comparison.

Also note, your basis is entirely driven by CP2077's lackluster sales. Which is in part driven by its terrible release state. There's no reason to expect CP2 to also get such sales figures at this point.

 

[ShinAkira00]

ummmm....No.

1. That's not how development costs work. A game twice as big does not mean twice the cost. Not only will they reuse assets from the previous game, cutting down on the time and cost, but the team will now have a blueprint to work with. They aren't starting from scratch. Now of course as you mentioned inflation and contracts and so on will adversely result in increases elsewhere but the bulk of the cost is typically the technical bits. The easiest way to think of it is making a TV show for the first time. It's expensive to build the set, the costumes and so on. Next season your cost is drastically down because the set is already built, the costumes are already there, the writers already know the characters so they aren't spending countless hours trying to figure out the tone or direction for a pilot. You'll need to tweak things here and there but at a significantly lower cost.

2. The reason they are moving to Unreal engine is to cut down on development time and therefore cut down on development cost.

3. That is not a terrible investment, that's just not good math. It's a great outcome for a developer that had a negative launch. Wildly successful frankly.

4. "smaller" and "online" is a contradiction. Online doesn't just exist, it requires additional resources. So no it would not be small. Is GTA online or Read Dead online what you would call small? Unless the intention is to have one Cyberpunk game being milked for a decade through microtransactions then no, we do not want any of that.

5. By "repeatable value" you mean predatory practices that manipulate gamers into buying from cash shops. No, that is most certainly not what any well meaning gamer wants.

 

[GrimReaper801]

So @ShinAkira00 said pretty much all that needs to be said. Although it bears mentioning that cash shops do not have to be predatory nor are they all predatory.

There are a few things worth mentioning still.

Like the fact that you fails to consider that part of the 350m (320 actually IIRC but it's a detail) budget is actually marketing which is rumored to account for nearly 50% of the overall budget. The cost of marketing the next game could be wildly different. There is just no way to know and assuming either way at this point is silly.

Or the fact, and this ties in with @ShinAkira00's point about the move to UE, a large part of that budget was was spent on the REDengine. Furthermore to this, CDPR grew a lot following TW3's success and there is no doubt a lot of money was spent paying developers who needed to get up to speed with this engine and didn't contribute much until they were. A problem they won't face nearly as much with UE.

The idea that the "old" model of AAA game is dead is absolutely laughable. I've been hearing this for nearly as long as we've been hearing about a game being the next "WoW killer". Yet both are still alive and well. If anything recent games have shown that the model is still very viable. You say it's a big IF that CP2 would sell 25 million units but it's really not that big of a stretch. CP2077 sold 25 million IN SPITE OF a terrible launch that tainted the game for a very long time. The game recouped the entirety of it's budget before even launching. BG3 has been selling like hotcakes since it's release. It never dropped below #5 on Steam global top sellers and it currently back at #1 nearly five months after it's release. I can't think of any single player game that achieved that but I also can't think of a multiplayer game that achieved it either. The model is very much alive and sustainable, your game simply has to be good.

CP2 doesn't need to be smaller. It also doesn't need to be "bigger". It only needs to be deeper and better.

It's also worth mentioning that CP2077 had sold 25m copies by October. We're 3 months later, the game has been on sale a few times since and reached high spots on Steam and GOG and I've no doubt on consoles too. I've said it before and I'll say it again, regardless of anyone's stance on the launch or the state of the game as it is, it sold very well.

 

[ShinAkira00]

It's also worth mentioning that CP2077 had sold 25m copies by October. We're 3 months later, the game has been on sale a few times since and reached high spots on Steam and GOG and I've no doubt on consoles too. I've said it before and I'll say it again, regardless of anyone's stance on the launch or the state of the game as it is, it sold very well.

They also sold 5 million copies of Phantom Liberty for 2023 and I'm sure they will continue to have more, albeit slower sales throughout the year. A lot of developers would love to just have that 5 million copies sold.

As for the death of single player AAA. Alan Wake 2 is probably my favorite game of 2023, maybe even in my top 5 favorite games ever made. It underscores the importance of the single player experience. While there are many positives to live service games, corporate greed will ALWAYS override any good intentions.

I played Diablo 4 as a first time ARPG player last year and it was the worst experience I've ever had as a gamer. An obviously unfinished storyline, game mechanics intentionally put in place to slow players down, waiting in queues for hours to get in the game, cash shops and horrible PVP. On the upside Path of Exile appears to have a good reputation but their game is actually free to play. The problem is there are far more negative and predatory examples with live service than there are good ones so that is not something I will ever support. I'll never buy another Diablo game ever again but I'm going to give Grinding Gear Games the benefit of the doubt when POE2 releases.

I honestly think we should expect some live service content from CDPR in the future. Maybe not for the main Cyberpunk title and maybe not in the form of a cash shop but I do think it's inevitable...unfortunately.

 

[northwold]

Just to the point about "lacklustre" sales. Cyberpunk has sold over 20 million copies. That easily puts it among the biggest selling games of all time. To suggest that a developer should *target* sales higher than that is rather far-fetched.

 

[Draconifors]

This is why I keep suggesting it needs to go the live service route (done right hopefully).

No. Nope. Absolutely not.

That would be a great way to alienate a lot of the people who currently like CDPR games.

 

[DjSpyder]

Not to pile on here.

But the Live service bubble has 100% popped, most people are over it, they're seen as predatory at worst and oversaturated at best. And while I personally enjoy SOME live service games, a CDPR Witcher/CP2077 style open world RPG that is hugely narrative driven will not translate well to that genre.

Besides for Every "The Division" or "Fortnite" or "Destiny" there are dozens of "The Avengers" or "Anthem" or "The Day Before" It's a very hard business model to do right, and because they require online servers and a constant connection if they don't do well enough to justify the continued cost to run, they die, and when a live service dies, it doesn't just "Go away" like other genres it becomes unplayable.

And again, I like some Live service titles, Like the Division series, excited for 3 when it finally becomes a real thing, I enjoyed Gotham Knights, which is a Live Service "Lite." I'm going to Play Suicide Squad even though I'm concerned about its quality, It's Kevin Conroy's last performance as batman I'm going to play it just for that and hope it's good. But this is not a space CDPR should move into, and IF They do.... it changes the entire studio.

Naughty dog just canceled its last of us multiplayer spinoff because it would cost too much and take aways resources from single player games meaning the entire studio would be pulled into making and supporting just one game, killing future projects. Studios with failed live service games have been forced to close because they were bleeding money, they cost MORE to make than single player games just because of the ongoing support, which in some ways Justifies the microtransactions and in-game stores.... but also means if those don't sell just as well as the game it hurts the development of future content, and that's before getting into if those purchases are actually quality content or not.

At the end of the day CDPR is not a live service studio, and moving to that model for Orion doesn't just change CP, it changes CDPR, and I think most of us, don't want to see what that change looks like, UbiSoft and Bungie seem to be doing Live service right.... but most others aren't so let's not test those waters with CDPR, especially with the current sentiment towards the model as a whole.

 

[yabab]

It needs to be the same size, but the Unreal Engine 5 change will challenge that. Fingers crossed they make it.

 

[Toonen1988]

Project Orion doesn't need to be bigger but better.

Cyberpunk 2077 had a rough start, but it was always one of the best games i've ever played. Why? Well, the gameplay isn't innovating but it was still fun to play. CDPR brought out many game changing patches and made the game even more fun then ever before.

But what made Cyberpunk 2077 for me one of the best games I ever played?

The voice acting, the atmosphere, the story, the subjects, visual a masterpiece and above all, the characters. Since i've played Cyberpunk 2077 and Baldur's Gate 3, many games now feel bland, empty, boring and lifeless. The whole feeling the game gave me, is one of the best i've expierenced.

I want CDPR to hold on, on these things that made Cyberpunk 2077 one of the best games ever made and just take it up a notch. Bigger doesn't always mean better. Remember Elite Dangerous with the millions systems, well how many are really interesting to explore? Only just a small amount, rest was just empty. Starfield with the thousand planets? Only a handful are worth checking out. Bigger doesn't always means better.

I want quality over quantity. I would have rather 10 planets in a space sim that are very detailed, handcrafted that I can explore for hours and hours than having 100 empty planets that are just empty and using it as a selling point. I don't want to have a bigger Night City, rather I want to have a better Night City.

This guy hits the nails on it's head. He is the only person I know that can exactly explain what Cyberpunk 2077 really is. I want CDPR to hold on to this and take it up a notch in project Orion! Like I said, I don't want to have a bigger Night City, but a better Night City. I don't want to have more characters, but would rather have better characters.

And even if project Orion becomes smaller but yet gives me the expierence like Cyberpunk 2077 did, but better, you won't hear me complain!

 

[lefouduroi.pr]

With all of its warts, I think people criminally underrate the amount of risk CP2077 represented for CDPR, thus the slightly inflated budget.

They used REDengine to build a game that, in many aspects, was completely new for them and that engine.

Shooter, first person view, urban environment... diametrically opposed to what they were used to do, aka the Witcher series. The only thing that were "kept" were their emphasis on narrative and the open world genre. The rest had to be built by a team that was, for the most part, not experienced in those new mechanics.

Let alone forcing REDengine to accommodate this vastly different game.

I think that for a first try at it, they did pretty well with a rather conservative budget (AAA standards and as someone stated, we know that close to 50% was spent on marketing). Also, Keanu Reeves, Idris, cameos, etc... we can debate on the value of those additions, but they were surely more expensive than random voice actors or less famous ones.

 

[Netrunner2go]

With all of its warts, I think people criminally underrate the amount of risk CP2077 represented for CDPR, thus the slightly inflated budget.

They used REDengine to build a game that, in many aspects, was completely new for them and that engine.

Shooter, first person view, urban environment... diametrically opposed to what they were used to do, aka the Witcher series. The only thing that were "kept" were their emphasis on narrative and the open world genre. The rest had to be built by a team that was, for the most part, not experienced in those new mechanics.

Let alone forcing REDengine to accommodate this vastly different game.

I think that for a first try at it, they did pretty well with a rather conservative budget (AAA standards and as someone stated, we know that close to 50% was spent on marketing). Also, Keanu Reeves, Idris, cameos, etc... we can debate on the value of those additions, but they were surely more expensive than random voice actors or less famous ones.

hmm there is a really good documentary about Horizon Zero Dawn.... with everything you said above - totally new and unexperienced for the studio to make a game like that and it was a great success with way less issues at release... its really worth watching, maybe you would think different afterwards : /

edit: cant find the whole docu anymore but small snippets like this one here:

 

[NoClass77]

Focus on smaller more polished experiences with online and repeatable value.

I don't play online games.

 

[Netrunner2go]

I don't play online games.

Yeah personally I don’t like hybrids as well… don’t like the darkzone in division or the online missions in watchdogs2 f.e.

keep single player & multiplayer seperated. it was even a learning for R* while for the first gta5 heists you NEEDED a team of multiplayer until they changed their designchoice and made new heists soloable from the get go…

 

[Tarille]

totally new and unexperienced for the studio to make a game like that and it was a great success with way less issues at release... its really worth watching, maybe you would think different afterwards : /

I mean, sure...

But also lets remember that CP2077 also switched engine part-way through development. Meaning having to start from scratch.

Lets also remember a few other titles that were made by developers inexperienced in the type of game:

- Anthem
- Fallout 76
- Forspoken
- Redfall
- Gollum
- Kong

Developers tackling new things seems to often have significant teething problems (Possibly as managment uses timeframes based on their existing portfolio that they're experienced in and try to apply it to something the devs have to learn as they go) most of the aforementioned games have been "Death of the studio" bad.

Could CP2077 have released better? Sure. I wonder how much of a difference it would have made if they simply started on the REDengine from the get go so didn't need to reset part way through development.

But it's worth giving the result at least a pinch of salt for being such a different type of game from their previous fare (Which incidentally, also didn't come out of the gate swinging... W1 has its share of clunk to it)

 

[GrimReaper801]

I mean, sure...

But also lets remember that CP2077 also switched engine part-way through development. Meaning having to start from scratch.

Lets also remember a few other titles that were made by developers inexperienced in the type of game:

- Anthem
- Fallout 76
- Forspoken
- Redfall
- Gollum
- Kong

Developers tackling new things seems to often have significant teething problems (Possibly as managment uses timeframes based on their existing portfolio that they're experienced in and try to apply it to something the devs have to learn as they go) most of the aforementioned games have been "Death of the studio" bad.

Could CP2077 have released better? Sure. I wonder how much of a difference it would have made if they simply started on the REDengine from the get go so didn't need to reset part way through development.

But it's worth giving the result at least a pinch of salt for being such a different type of game from their previous fare (Which incidentally, also didn't come out of the gate swinging... W1 has its share of clunk to it)

Wait, what?

Source for this please. As far as I know, the game was always on REDengine and a quick search shows no other engine ever being used.

This sounds like some Reddit theory crafting.

 

[Netrunner2go]

Wait, what?

Source for this please. As far as I know, the game was always on REDengine and a quick search shows no other engine ever being used.

they reworked the engine in the process:

„Although Cyberpunk 2077 was initially developed using REDengine 3 as far back as 2013, CD Projekt Red developed REDengine 4 after facing difficulty developing the game, which used a first-person perspective, a departure from the third-person perspective CD Projekt had developed in for earlier iterations of REDengine.“

source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberpunk_2077

Development > Technical & Gameplay

edit: still no excuse for that kind of release… Guerrila-Games developed a brand new engine (Decima) for Horizon as well and didn’t messed up

 

[Bearded_Geek]

CDPR have said that they see cyberpunk roadmap taking shape like witcher in terms of each new version being bigger and better than the last.

But this isnt going to be possible. The realities prevent it. Let me explain.

Cyberpunk 2077 cost around $350M and has sold 25M copies for $1.5B or 4.2x investment. Not great not terrible.
(As an aside 2077 really needed a content store).

If cyberpunk 2 will be 2x the size and/or length of 2077 then it will cost north of $700M. Accounting for rising costs closer to $1B.

Even IF (a big IF) cyberpunk 2 sells 25 million units. Thats $1.5B revenue on $1B invested and thats not counting the lost time. All of that equals A TERRIBLE investment and return.

This is why I keep suggesting it needs to go the live service route (done right hopefully).

The old model of bigger AAA games is dead and unsustainable.

Focus on smaller more polished experiences with online and repeatable value.

Live Services and "always online" is the death of gaming. Not the other way around. You are literally arguing for less consumer rights and more abuse by corporations.

It seems to me that RPGs just aren't your type of game, and that is fine. Just chalk it up to a mistake on your part, and maybe not buy any other massive single player RPGs like Witcher 3, Cyberpunk 2077, Baldur's Gate 3 or Wrath Of The Righteous.

 

[GrimReaper801]

they reworked the engine in the process:

„Although Cyberpunk 2077 was initially developed using REDengine 3 as far back as 2013, CD Projekt Red developed REDengine 4 after facing difficulty developing the game, which used a first-person perspective, a departure from the third-person perspective CD Projekt had developed in for earlier iterations of REDengine.“

source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberpunk_2077

Development > Technical & Gameplay

edit: still no excuse for that kind of release… Guerrila-Games developed a brand new engine (Decima) for Horizon as well and didn’t messed up

Yeah, I'm aware of that but that is a very, very different thing than working on a different engine.

Updating your engine =/= working on a different engine.

 

[LeKill3rFou]

Yeah, I'm aware of that but that is a very, very different thing than working on a different engine.

Updating your engine =/= working on a different engine.

Yeah
Red Engine 3 and Red Engine 4 aren't that different... Cyberpunk and The Witcher 3 have the same kind of issues/problems.
It's like another "famous" engine which evolved with games but still share the same issues/bugs/problems since more than a decade, engine which is named Creation Engine