Would be nice to see winrates either excluding mirrors or even broken down by matchup.
Post automatically merged:
Without delving too deep into it, if your playrate as a leader ability (or a race) is twice as much as that of another race, you're also about twice as likely to get into a mirror, which effectively (the mirror matchup) cuts your winrate in two. How exactly it would affect overall numbers would require too much math effort I am not willing to invest for the sake of this discussion, but there would definitely be a difference.
Ah okay, I see. Now the rates without mirrors would DEFINITELY be nice to know. That also means the nerfs to NR (which also received buffs) and MO were more than justified. SK getting away with that little rebalancing is now even more beyond any imagination for me. Hard to say anything about NG, maybe small adjustments would have been good.
One of the things I wish we had was the game forfeit rate for different factions/leaders. I would be willing to bet that part of the success for NG in the data is because opponents are forfeiting early against them.
From my own experience, I know if I play NG, opponents are much more likely to forfeit early, probably by at least 2 to 1 over an SK SW deck.
Now we know for sure what we already knew for a long time... SK and Second Wind dominated July 2020, and the hotfix that was released a week after MM did nothing to stop that.
Worst of all, we got a new season where the patch barely addresses the issue, im not even sure SW will be abandoned, but i do know SK will still be dominant.
Month after month, the Gwent team fails to make meaningful balance changes. You can dream one day that will change, but the stats over a 3+ year "career" point otherwise.
P.S. - on a sidenote, its "nice" to see Invigorate be the one constant in Gwent leader abilities... it has seen giants rise and fall, but it has always managed to maintain its position...
Without delving too deep into it, if your playrate as a leader ability (or a race) is twice as much as that of another race, you're also about twice as likely to get into a mirror, which effectively (the mirror matchup) cuts your winrate in two.
Your math is way off. The frequency of a mirror match is proportional to the square of the deck frequency (player 1 must choose the deck and player 2 must choose it). Thus doubling the frequency of the deck multiplies the mirror match rate by 4. But doubling the the mirror match rate in no way comes close to halving the deck win rate. The correct formula is that the weighted average of non-mirror match win rates and .5 (with weights the proportion of nonmirror matches and 1/2 proportion of mirror matches) equals the overall deck win rate.
Isn't that what CDP baited for? It sounded like all abilities that play card from the deck will be removed. I've heard something about that on Specimen's stream as well.
Isn't that what CDP baited for? It sounded like all abilities that play card from the deck will be removed. I've heard something about that on Specimen's stream as well.
Thanks for clarifying mate. Good to have rumours cleared out of the way.
It is still a shame though. I do not think those leader abilities are that horrible. It's a matter of balancing cards rather than removing game content, imo.
Your math is way off. The frequency of a mirror match is proportional to the square of the deck frequency (player 1 must choose the deck and player 2 must choose it). Thus doubling the frequency of the deck multiplies the mirror match rate by 4. But doubling the the mirror match rate in no way comes close to halving the deck win rate. The correct formula is that the weighted average of non-mirror match win rates and .5 (with weights the proportion of nonmirror matches and 1/2 proportion of mirror matches) equals the overall deck win rate.
I think it's partially that I didn't much care for the formulae and partially that you misunderstood what I meant. The "halfing" of the winrate only meant that in the mirror matchup, of the two instances of the same deck being in the game, one will inevitably lose, no matter how insanely broken the deck is, whereas had both of those instances occurred against an inferior deck (read: every other one), they BOTH would have won.
I don't want to think too hard about the probability calculation, especially since I mentioned that both, race and deck mirror numbers could be interesting to see excluded. Your math looks legit, though, I guess, so I'll take your word for it
Thanks for clarifying mate. Good to have rumours cleared out of the way.
It is still a shame though. I do not think those leader abilities are that horrible. It's a matter of balancing cards rather than removing game content, imo.
Sorry I wrote that at 5am. I might have been a slight over-exaggerstion, but it is strong.
I would need to see it more times in action to get a really clear view.
Luiza ability now being on order gives you a turn to deal her at least. So it won't be AS bad as before. But I don't see SY having issues with coin management.
However to be honest, it's probably still not to SK level warrior level, those games dont even feel competitive.
I'm leaning toward the opinion that they should revert Harmony and Mystic Echo back to their original form. And heck why not let MO have their Ethereal play.
