So I climbed to rank 20 the last 3 days playing Harald. Here is the meta I faced: 9 Brouver (78%), 5 Calveit (40%), 3 Henselt (100%), 3 Dagon (100%), 2 Harald (50%), 2 Radovid (armor), 0% ;( , 1 Francesca won, 1 Voorhis and 1 Bran (both lost).
Overall, it is kind of ironic that we still see a lot of Brouver after they nerfed dwarves so much, but actually all of those were Swim's elves list. (And as you can see Harald trounces them.) So elves point-throw and alchemy makes up for half of my games, but the other half is pretty diverse. I had a lot of fun.
About the coin-flip, I won ~70% of red coins and 50% of blue coins, so it is not the end of the world, but it still a significant difference. (I was a bit lucky on coin-flip.)
But as the guy above said, it is not about the win-rate: I even felt bad for the times I just won the game on the first card played, because the opponent didn't have the counter for my spy, and he had to allow me a really long round 3 as Harald.