Totally agree with this. I believe NR is still the king, we see too many Francescas because it's still fresh, and because ppl want to just have some variaty for a time, but when the dust settles NR will still be number one. Fran is counterable by so many neutral cards, you can always build around while NG is just annoying.
On the thinning topic:
Thinning overall is toxic especially after the change of mulligans where all leaders have plenty. I believe thinning should be a max of 2 cards per turn, everything that allows more should be reworked. Otherwise you simply play your whole deck (or almost) every single game. Even back at the SK thinning meta, a lot of times your Skalds bricked, or you had to thin a useful cards (not a skirmisher/morg), so it had a huge price and was risky. Thinning nowadays is so much easier...25 cards, 16 draws and 6-7 mulli+epic thinning options? Com on...
What if they enforce a rule - for every 2 (thinning tag) cards you must add one extra card to your deck (so 25+1, +2 etc...) This way at least you won't play your whole deck every single game. Cards that thin more than one add directly +1 to the required minimum - for example portal and so on.