Void_Singer;n10402332 said:
I fail to see your logic. Could you expand on the math?
I fail to see your logic. Could you expand on the math?
Initial draw is 10 cards of 25 (we'll assume, because higher is worse). if 3 of those cards are X,your chance of draw at least 1 of X is 4/5 (80%). Put another way, you chance of Not drawing any X is 1/5 (or 20%), at only 2 copies of X in the deck you Chance of not drawing any jumps to >1/3 (35%). doesn't sound like much that 15% difference right? but it's actually a 75% increase of your failure to draw rate (35/20) for that specific card X. This means that initial hand is much less predictable, and will require more mulligans to fix (reducing their ability to sear for tech cards) and provide less reliability over the course of multiple game.giornodeigiudizi;n10404512 said:
Higher end Ranked/Ladder decks rely on repeatability of starting hands to allow them to exceed the measly 12pt bronze average on every play in R3.... usually at 14-20+ (averaging higher) per card played in R3. a single 25pt play doesn't help them when it lowers the repeatability of their deck. unless those decks get an exceptionally bad draw (it can still happen) they will outpace any Ciri deck more often than not, even without card advantage. they can afford to lose a game here and there (facing the same opponent) because on average of all games they come out ahead.
If you're curious about odds for different card combinations, there's a draw odds calculator attached to the link in my signature below, but it's worth mentioning that odds calculations, especially where mulligans are concerned, are best case for a single combination. For a full deck they are much more complex (and lower), but it's educational as to basic reliability.
Void_Singer
While I don't disagree with your calculations, I do want to add two additional points. First of all, having tutor cards increases the odds for getting a particular card, making the Nova deck still reliable. Furthermore, by having a less aggressive mulligan (can only blacklist one, instead of two cards) and fewer copies of a card, you also have less of a chance to brick your hand with unwanted cards. However, the latter argument should be taken with a grain of salt because the downside doesn't outweigh the upside.
While I don't disagree with your calculations, I do want to add two additional points. First of all, having tutor cards increases the odds for getting a particular card, making the Nova deck still reliable. Furthermore, by having a less aggressive mulligan (can only blacklist one, instead of two cards) and fewer copies of a card, you also have less of a chance to brick your hand with unwanted cards. However, the latter argument should be taken with a grain of salt because the downside doesn't outweigh the upside.
100% agree, Although the same tutors that improve the Ciri deck also improve the regular, and you can even have another above it, so any edge there, it's actually in favor of non-Ciri. I actually didn't factor in the blacklisting, but it too favors non-Ciri by as much as 5% on the mulligan, since the "best" (222) mulligan in Ciri is the median mulligan for non-Ciri
I thought it was fun while it lasted. I rarely used her and lost a lot of games against her, but I didn't really think it was that OP as the restrictions were pretty severe and you could get easy wins against players who didn't draw her despite obviously playing her.
The hatred that several people had against this card really stems from the f'd up "spy game" that Gwent became and her power was huge due to the fact you could play her last (if things worked out right). But that's just my impression.
22 power probably isn't worth the hassle of running her.
I did however think that Ciri combined with the tutor was too powerful. It even boosted her beyond 25: how the hell was that even possible? (unless I read the card wrong)
The hatred that several people had against this card really stems from the f'd up "spy game" that Gwent became and her power was huge due to the fact you could play her last (if things worked out right). But that's just my impression.
22 power probably isn't worth the hassle of running her.
I did however think that Ciri combined with the tutor was too powerful. It even boosted her beyond 25: how the hell was that even possible? (unless I read the card wrong)
actual effect is "Strengthen +24 if...". Beggar King has a similar discontinuity when drawn from Alzhur's DC
Void_Singer;n10409302 said:
In fact Marginal0 is right, Ciri Nova reads "If you have exactly 2 copies of each Bronze card in your starting deck, Strengthen self TO 25" so it shouldn't be possible to bring her higher than 25, even after being tutored by Royal decree.
The same stands for King of beggars, the way it works should not allow him to be higher than your opponent's score or 15 depending on the situation.
EDIT : Nevermind, I just gave it a second though and Royal decree/Alzur's double cross boost when Nova/KoB strengthen so it makes perfect sense to bring them above their "maximum" value.
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we know what it says ... but what it actually does is different... it's possible to srtengthen her before being played as well, although AFAIK only Crach can pull it off, and only if she's the last unit in the deckGenLiu;n10413632 said: