Kegs Drop-rate Analysis (Premium, Silver, Gold)

[nastynas]

Odds of Gold cards in Kegs

So I just bought 60 kegs and got 0 gold cards. Was this just super bad luck? What are the odds?

$70... ugh.. lol, I just feel totally ripped off and am discouraged from ever spending money on this game again.

 

[Caisekrus]

I can feel you frustration. This is indeed extremely bad luck. Hopefully they will start selling "premium kegs" you can buy with real money so that such fringe cases are even more unlikely.

(I personally had saved 75 kegs for premium kegs weekend, and got 1 gold; then saved 20 and got 3 golds. It's just the numbers my friend)

 

[devivre]

nastynas Threads merged

 

[Void_Singer]

So I just bought 60 kegs and got 0 gold cards. Was this just super bad luck? What are the odds?

$70... ugh.. lol, I just feel totally ripped off and am discouraged from ever spending money on this game again.

definitely bad luck, by an estimate. on average that should have been ~3 golds. That's the problem with low percentage chance events, they are very erratic if you count on the "success" side. on the flip side I'm willing to bet that your silver drop rate was about that much higher (because bronze rates are high enough to be pretty stable).

AFAICT I haven't had the greatest luck either, and I believe the per card rarity drop rates are 90 / 8 / 1.6 / 0.4% for the First Four, and 80 / 16 / 4% for the Fifth, giving a per card rate of 72 / 22.4 / 4.48 / 1.12% over each keg. (so 1.12% * 5 for each keg, * 60 for number of kegs should yield 3.36 golds on average.)

 

[nastynas]

Other games have a guarantee of 3 legendary cards if you make the largest purchase like this. Probably because of the bad future business that feeling ripped off creates. $70 is a lot of money, and I won't risk it again.

 

[Zubr_]

Open 41 Kegs and get ZERO Golden Cards.
Is it wicked joke?

 

[Draconifors]

@Zubr_ Thread merged.

 

[rrc]

Other games have a guarantee of 3 legendary cards if you make the largest purchase like this. Probably because of the bad future business that feeling ripped off creates. $70 is a lot of money, and I won't risk it again.

You can send a rant to playgwent.com/en/support. Tell them your concern and your proposal. They usually listen and at least try to reply. If I had spent $70 and got nothing, I would be pretty pissed too. But on the bright side, you are having a great chance of getting gold drops in the future kegs.

 

[goofything]

I have not received a single gold card in my last 71 kegs. I opened 50 kegs I had saved for the premium Keg weekend and got zero golds.

Anyway, just food for thought...

 

[Draconifors]

@goofything Thread merged.

Also, Burza has confirmed that the rumoured pity timer does not exist: here.

 

[Orsest]

i noticed that in premium weeks gold/silver cards rate much lower, but anyway premium cards are better for mill and mroe expensive for craft, why do you complain? i still wonder how cdpr making money in this game when there are so much ways easily avoid any donation for craft

 

[partci]

i noticed that in premium weeks gold/silver cards rate much lower...

Absolutely wrong. I open kegs only during such weekends now and I must say I have just crazy drop ratio. Sure, to be able to do this you need to have close to full collection, but the drop rate is the same regardless.

 

[goofything]

@goofything Thread merged.

Also, Burza has confirmed that the rumoured pity timer does not exist: here.

Thanks!

 

[4RM3D]

Locking this thread. The new thread for Homecoming can be found here: https://forums.cdprojektred.com/ind...p-rate-analysis-premium-silver-gold.10987184/