Kegs Drop-rate Analysis (Premium, Silver, Gold)

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Opened 150 kegs total, all that i got is 3 gold card. Longest streck without gold card is 70 kegs. My account seems to be broken.
 

Raunbjorn

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The gold droprate is atrocious and the amount of kegs needed for a full collection is disgusting when you think of how few cards there are in this game. CDPR should be ashamed of themselves. Love the game though lol (which is unfortunate cause of the reason stated before!)
 
Its just luck guys. Yesterday, I had a keg with a Bloody Barron within the first 4 cards and then the last 3 from which you choose were also golds, although shitty ones. But two golds in one keg was really nice. Guess what? Today I opened up the next 3 kegs from my daily rewards and I had another gold in it.
 
In the last 45 days my card kegs have me asking questions...

In the last 45 days or so I've literally gotten the same amount of gold and purple cards from the first four cards as I have from the 5th card. I've received 3 golds and 4 purples from the 1st four cards and 3 golds and 4 purples from the 5th card. I do not buy card kegs and Id say I've opened give or take 100 kegs in 45 days. Anyways I'm wondering if it is known if the drop rate of the 1st four cards is the same or similar as the 5th card. My guess is that the drop rate of cards from card kegs is not revealed to the public and thus I wanna know if this is just a strange oddity that this happened to me or do others see a similar pattern in their kegs. I feel like I've been getting a lot more non white cards the 1st four cards since the last patch dropped. Is this just my RNG or are others seeing this too?
 
I can share my statistics with you. I keep track of all my kegs, cards and materials in a spreadsheet. Based on my data, I think you just happened into an odd variation. As you can see, in my case I tend to get twice more rares, epics and legendaries from the 5th card compared to the 1st four.

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KegsCards
2191095
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Statistics1st Four Cards5th Card
Normal Common7730
Premium Common90
Normal Rare74149
Premium Rare124
Normal Epic1633
Premium Epic02
Normal Legendary39
Premium Legendary02
Total876219
 
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Another 12 kegs, no legends, no even epic, and last 7 or 8 kegs not even rare in first 4 cards, CDPR have screwed something in their code, for some players distribution of cards is broken. Also as daily card (the one that is given random sometimes instead 15 ore or scraps) i never ever get anything then white cards. And i won hundreds of those whites already.
 
Let's Talk Stats (I've Just Acquired all the Cards)

There have been discussions about the drop-rate and about whether or not this game is P2W. But I am not going to discuss that here. This topic is about all the rewards, including the kegs, the scraps from dailies and the rewards for gaining level/rank. I'll just present simple stats and you can draw your own conclusions.

Days since the start of Open Beta (on 24th of May): 82 days
Time spent: 139 hours (thanks GoG for keeping track) or little over 1.5 hours per day (damn)
Progress: Level 32, Rank 19
Daily Tiers: 1~2 tiers per day
Kegs opened: 328 kegs
Money spent: 54 Euro
Extra Rewards: 38 kegs from Closed Beta

Extra note 1: I have counted the normal and premium cards as one, meaning I do not have all the premium cards.
Extra note 2: I actually do not own all the cards, but I have enough scraps to craft them if I so desire.

Other CCG I have played: Hearthstone, Spellweaver and Shadowverse. I have spent quite a lot of time (and a little bit of money) on them and in none of those games I ever came close to acquiring all the cards.


90 out of 103 epics (divided by 2 because of premiums)
54 out of 81 legendaries (divided by 2 because of premiums)

Missing 13 epics (2600 scraps) and 27 legendaries (21600 scraps), totaling 24200 scraps.
Scraps in my collection: 17030 + 7410 = 24440 scraps
 
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Few things don't seem right.

Personally i have 313 hours, but i played in closed beta aswell so i guess those count too. I'm level 52 now and started open beta with 50+ kegs but i didn't spend any money yet i'm still missing ~22 gold cards of value. So either you're very lucky with kegs or something's not right.

Now i'm not denying that gwent is more generous than other card games but a "full collection" is arbitrary here because each game has a different amount of cards, one could argue that it's easier to get the gwent collection because it has less cards.
 
Iuliandrei;n9304921 said:
Personally i have 313 hours, but i played in closed beta aswell so i guess those count too. I'm level 52 now and started open beta with 50+ kegs but i didn't spend any money yet i'm still missing ~22 gold cards of value. So either you're very lucky with kegs or something's not right.

I think I have an average drop-rate: Epic 21,78% and Legendary 7,06%. I've also added some proof.

Iuliandrei;n9304921 said:
a "full collection" is arbitrary here because each game has a different amount of cards, one could argue that it's easier to get the gwent collection because it has less cards.

True, Gwent does have less cards than the other CCG I've mentioned. But I did take the expansions into account. I only looked at the base set and added all the card I got from the expansion and I still couldn't complete my collection. On top of that, I couldn't keep up with the expansions.
 
Iuliandrei;n9304921 said:
Few things don't seem right.

Personally i have 313 hours, but i played in closed beta aswell so i guess those count too. I'm level 52 now and started open beta with 50+ kegs but i didn't spend any money yet i'm still missing ~22 gold cards of value. So either you're very lucky with kegs or something's not right.

Yes its a RNG as well now we know cdpr gives full refund on nerfed cards so if you have more of them you are getting advantage over others who don't have.

Iuliandrei;n9304921 said:
Now i'm not denying that gwent is more generous than other card games but a "full collection" is arbitrary here because each game has a different amount of cards, one could argue that it's easier to get the gwent collection because it has less cards.

I don't see it's possible to argue on the point that gwent is having less cards as we are compering quantity & time so even if gwent is going to have same numbers of cards as HS or HS is going to have same number of cards as gwent.

Gwent 500 cards = 3 months / HS 500 cards = 6 months same way...
Gwent 5000 cards = 3 years / HS 5000 cards = 5 years may be
 
I don't have any stats but i don't think i've had more than 6 golds total and i've opened MANY kegs, i'm sure over 200 and likely more than that. The gold drop rate is pretty terrible.
 
Kingoko;n9304271 said:
as daily card (the one that is given random sometimes instead 15 ore or scraps) i never ever get anything then white cards

Just to contribute to that somehow, I don't keep track of those rewards. But let's assume that the odds of getting ore, scraps, powder or a card are the same. So you have 25% chance of getting a card from those rewards. I believe the rarity odds of that card might be similar to the odds of the 1st four cards of a Keg. After opening almost 200 Kegs, I have this data:
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RarityOdds (%)Sample of 800 Rewards (200 Cards)
Common88.89%177.78 Commons
Rare8.27%16.54 Rares
Epic2.57%5.14 Epics
Legendary0.27%0.54 Legendaries








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I wouldn't be surprised if you haven't found a legendary out of those rewards or even an epic. A few rares are expected to happen tho.
 
I guess there's something more to it. I have rarely opened a keg because I dont play much and when I do, only get the first daily rewards. I got 4 silvers and 1 gold and Im just level 4(another 3 silvers and 2 golds from 20 closed beta kegs that I didnt open all at once). Maybe how often you open them matters.
 
Yesterday I opened my Starters Pack. It dropped me 2 Silver cards, both premium (Scorch and Albrich). Might have been a third, I think there was, but scrolling through my collection I can't find which one it could be (maybe Svanrige, cause I have two, but did I had them before?). In general the game drops like 1 Gold on every 4 or 5 Silvers for me.
 
Special Statistics for cards from the shop

When opening card kegs, I noticed a few things which aren't covered by the other thread, because they are more specific. Therefore I'd like to create this thread to collect some more information.

The first thing I noticed was, that it seems to be much more likely (at least for me) to get cards from the shop, which I don't own already (or at least the new cards form the update). When the Gold immunity update launched there were a lot of new cards and I got a lot of barrels as a reward. So the first week I wrote down everything I got from the shop. To give some background information, I owned every single bronze card 3 times already except the Clan Dimmun Pirate Captain (only once) and the Light Longship (only twice). So basically all the bronze unowned Bronze cards I got from the shop were the new ones.
In that week I opened 43 kegs and got a lot of new cards.
-8 new rare cards from the first 4 cards
-3 new common cards from the first 4 cards
-21 new rare cards from the descision
-1 new animated rare card from the descision
-1 new silver card from the descision

To compare this, I got at the same timme only 7 rare cards which weren't new plus 1 animated not new rare card in the first 4 and 12+2 animated rare cards which weren't new.
That gives me a rate of 8 old rares versus 8 new rares in the first 4 cards and 14 versus 22 in the last descision. What crooks my statistics a bit, is that I forgot to note the cases where I had to descide between more than 1 new rare card, but there quite a few, such that I will assume that I could descide at least 5 times between those.
So looking at all non animated rare cards, I could descide between 73 non new cards and 26 new cards, which is a ratio 3:1.

Concluded I had the ratio of 1:1 of old rare cards versus new in the first 4 cards and 3:1 in the descision between the 3 cards. In total there are 276 rare cards, and only 25 were new, such there should have been a ratio of 10:1, which clearly wasn't the case.

To sum it up, either I was extremly lucky, or it was more likely to get the new cards or it is more likely to get completly unowned cards.
As the size of my statistic is rather small, I'd like to ask if anyone had a similar experience.


The second thing that I noticed concerns the reaver hunters. While I get the first two on a normal probability from the shop, I get the third one with the dragon head behind him really often. Because I noticed that in the past I stopped milling anything for the past weeks. Before I had the first and the second RH once each and the third one only as an animated. Now, I have the first still once, the second one twice and the third one 5 times normal and twice animated.
The same question as before, has anybody experienced anything similar for the RH in particular or for other cards that are splitted in 3 parts?
 
After almost 4 months playing Gwent, I'm finally sitting on a full collection (non-premium). I'll share here some of the numbers I tracked during this time.
-- days.png

This first chart shows my progression in acquiring the cards (normal and premium). With the data I have in my spreadsheet, I do some calculations to infer how many days I'd need to have a full collection, taking into account that everyday I'd get the 2nd tier daily rewards. The big leap during the Gold Immunity Update happened because I bought the Starter Pack + 60 kegs, and also I milled all the cards that had full refund. The small leap during the Agile Update happened because of the full refund only.
-- kegs.png

And these are the numbers that I have after opening 392 kegs during the 4 months of play ;).

I never milled a card if it wasn't a duplicate during the first 2 months. For the last 2 months I only milled for full refund.
 
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