aholeel;n8657070 said:
(Comment edited to reflect the inclusion of additional data)
I went through the thread and added up all of the reported results for everyone who reported specific data. (I tossed out anything that said "I got 3 or 4" or "about 50 kegs" or "my first 20 kegs" or anything like that).
In total, that gave me 35 data points. In total, 192 legendaries were pulled from 3215 kegs. That suggests a drop rate of roughly 5.97%, which works out to roughly 1 in every 20 kegs, rather than 1 in 10-15. The median was 5.4%. In terms of the suggestion that the results are biased towards outliers, we actually wound up with a beautifully normal distribution. Check this out:
Thanks for the work
Just a quick update:
kegs 77 - 88
cards 385 - 440
common 275 - 313, rare 90 - 105, epic 16 - 18, legendary 4 - 4
So the average scrap value of a keg based on
case A) The milling value of everything would be 50ish
case B) The milling value of commons and rares and the full values of epics and legendaries would be 100ish.
If we look at the numbers implied by these observations,
they seem too regular and aesthetic to be coincidence:
droprates (70%, 25%, 4%, 1%)
scrapvalues (50, 100).
This is still in line with your calculations.
It seems also in line with some observations for drops during closed beta:
https://www.reddit.com/r/gwent/comme...d_my_keg_drop/
If this is correct a legendaries equivalent in scraps would cost between
case A) € 16 and € 20,
case B) € 7 and € 10.
A full collection for playing, without premium or dupes would need
198 commons, 201 rares, 78 epics, 66 legendaries
according to the following reddit post:
https://www.reddit.com/r/gwent/comme...blic_beta_194/
If we apply case B) and assume we have all the commons and rares, then we would need
about 68,400 scraps more for a full collection, or about 684 kegs.
So I would roughly estimate 800 kegs for a full set.
Based on the observation that I have most rares two or three times after opening 88 kegs.
I am not sure if these observations are correct.
They are all very rough and ballpark, just sharing my thoughts.
Not sure how I feel about the economic side of this.
On the one hands, everyone will catch up with whales over time, unless massive expansions are relased.
On the other hand, grinding seems to be much more attractive than small scale investements.
Hmm ?!