Kegs Drop-rate Analysis (Premium, Silver, Gold)

[xferus]

My first keg in the open beta got me RNR and Vilgefortz Then I got some other legendaries and several silvers (almost in a row), it seemed very lucky... but now I open only bronzes, feels like sth is broken.

 

[The_def_star]

I got bad luck in my keg opening extravaganza. Out of 95 kegs I only got 4 golds. I didn't get my first gold until 30+ kegs in. I have seen people on these forums have way more success. Some got 6 golds in just 20+ kegs. I think it's just as random as can be. Don't think there is a pitty timer or anything like that.

 

[devivre]

4 gold in 60 kegs seems about average to me. But no, there's no pattern.

 

[Michelazz]

I got 6 golds in 55 kegs which is good compared to the numbers mentioned here but was little disappointed with the number of silvers as it was somehow lol.
Anyway since i opened those kegs i too am only getting shitty bronze cards with not even a silver.

 

[4RM3D]

Nyanko73

Moved your thread to this one, dedicated to analyzing the drop rate.

 

[Kingoko]

Imo it is hard to create some kind of pool rate or statistic for one simple reason. Mostly numbers shown in this thread comin from ppl frustrated of low rate of gold. And we miss here ppl who was lucky opening let's say 6 leg from 40 kegs. We got more ppl pissed off here then ppl happy cause the lucky ones do not come here telling their drop rate or they don't even read this topic.
Sry for my english

 

[Selestes]

I have open maybe 15 kegs and all i got is cantarella silver, others were complete trash. Not fair.
For now, at this drop rate, i won't spend real money.

 

[aholeel]

Imo it is hard to create some kind of pool rate or statistic for one simple reason. Mostly numbers shown in this thread comin from ppl frustrated of low rate of gold. And we miss here ppl who was lucky opening let's say 6 leg from 40 kegs. We got more ppl pissed off here then ppl happy cause the lucky ones do not come here telling their drop rate or they don't even read this topic.
Sry for my english

I don't think that's true. take a look at the table I posted.

 

[BeEarnest]

(Comment edited to reflect the inclusion of additional data)

I went through the thread and added up all of the reported results for everyone who reported specific data. (I tossed out anything that said "I got 3 or 4" or "about 50 kegs" or "my first 20 kegs" or anything like that).

In total, that gave me 35 data points. In total, 192 legendaries were pulled from 3215 kegs. That suggests a drop rate of roughly 5.97%, which works out to roughly 1 in every 20 kegs, rather than 1 in 10-15. The median was 5.4%. In terms of the suggestion that the results are biased towards outliers, we actually wound up with a beautifully normal distribution. Check this out:

Thanks for the work
Just a quick update:


kegs 77 - 88
cards 385 - 440
common 275 - 313, rare 90 - 105, epic 16 - 18, legendary 4 - 4



So the average scrap value of a keg based on
case A) The milling value of everything would be 50ish
case B) The milling value of commons and rares and the full values of epics and legendaries would be 100ish.



If we look at the numbers implied by these observations,
they seem too regular and aesthetic to be coincidence:
droprates (70%, 25%, 4%, 1%)
scrapvalues (50, 100).

This is still in line with your calculations.
It seems also in line with some observations for drops during closed beta:
https://www.reddit.com/r/gwent/comme...d_my_keg_drop/


If this is correct a legendaries equivalent in scraps would cost between
case A) € 16 and € 20,
case B) € 7 and € 10.



A full collection for playing, without premium or dupes would need
198 commons, 201 rares, 78 epics, 66 legendaries
according to the following reddit post:
https://www.reddit.com/r/gwent/comme...blic_beta_194/

If we apply case B) and assume we have all the commons and rares, then we would need
about 68,400 scraps more for a full collection, or about 684 kegs.

So I would roughly estimate 800 kegs for a full set.
Based on the observation that I have most rares two or three times after opening 88 kegs.

I am not sure if these observations are correct.
They are all very rough and ballpark, just sharing my thoughts.



Not sure how I feel about the economic side of this.
On the one hands, everyone will catch up with whales over time, unless massive expansions are relased.
On the other hand, grinding seems to be much more attractive than small scale investements.
Hmm ?!

 

[aholeel]

snip

Awesome info and analysis! Thanks for sharing!

 

[felixsylvaris]

I must say that it would be great if CDP publish official drop rates. Just everyone will feel better if it was written.

Gwent is rather generous with cards. You can get 1-3 packs + some extras depending on grinding. Not bad. Also Golden cards are cheap to craft.

Other helpfull thing would be golden counter. If you havent got gold in 39 keg, the next one will have 1of3 gold for sure, reset each time you got gold.
Just to avoid 80 kegs and no gold, that is hearthbreaking.

 

[cwattyeso]

What's really annoying me with the drop rates at the minute is how many times I can open Kegs in succession and the Final Three Cards of which you only get to keep 1 are exactly the same as the previous keg. I've actually opened 5 Kegs in a row and each time had to choose between a Reaver Scout, Queensguard or a Mahakem Defender, all of which I already own all three copies of all their different art styles and premiums, so that is even more sickening as basically thats 5 kegs giving me 5 spare cards that mill down to nothing and don't even let me buy and mill a card I want.

 

[BILBO.BAGGINS]

So, i'm a newcomer to Gwent and haven't bought any kegs. I almost always open only 1 keg at a time ( if i get one or if i have 100 ore ). They always give me common or rares. The few times i happened to open 2,3 or 4 kegs at a time, i got at least one epic or legendary. I guess that's pretty good, right?
But, i hate the choose 1 out of 3 mechanic. One time, i had to choose between 3 gold cards: Dijkstra, Zoltan and, if i remember correctly, Coral. Though i've been exclusively playing with NR, i picked Zoltan, because when i change deck it's most likely going to be ST and he seems like an awesome card.

I wasn't aware that you can get premiums from the kegs. The premiums look very nice, but if i can't have a full premium deck, i don't care for a card or two. I have roughly 550 meteorite ore that i don't know what to do with. I wish i could trade it for cards or scraps or something. I know such a mechanic would make people less eager to buy stuff and support the game. Still, such a waste...

 

[ESNOW90]

Out of 85 kegs, 15 epics and 3 legendaries. I had seen people who get the same amount of golds from 1 keg (very lucky, I know, but relevant for the matter). Greatly dissapointed with the RNG, I find it discouraging.

 

[God_of_Eredin]

Well... I'm not gonna cry, but I've also opened 45 kegs and get only 2 epics and 2 legends. That's not cool.

I pointed it out before and was questioned. CDPR is digging an early grave gwent with these horrible drop rates.

800 kegs for all the cards... who is CDPR trying to fool?

 

[ELECTROVAMPIRE]

Opened 140 kegs got 15 legends and many epics.

 

[Tersoth]

90+ packs opened, $90 spent and 4 gold cards. Should have read this post before I wasted my money on this game. Going to have to change something if you want to keep your whales around.

 

[Rawls]

Opened 40 or so kegs thus far and got 4 Legendary cards (RNR, Aglais, Coral, Brokh).

 

[ListlessDonkey]

I hate the RNG of this game!

In 30 barrels which I paid good money for I received the following: 4 epics and 0 legendary cards.

I feel like the RNG of this game is too mean and I can't believe they will keep it this way. You'd have to spend hundreds of pounds just to get a workable deck.

 

[el_Bosco]

Thats what everyone is saying.