Personally, and after playing two times to the Witcher 3, the only logical conclusion for me is that there is only one canon path in the Witcher 2: the Roche Path where you give Anais to Natalis and Henselt is killed. Why? For several reasons:
1) First of all, if Temeria was splitted in two (between Redania and Kaedwen) the Temerian Army should be destroyed before the war with Nilfgaard or, at least, decimated. In the Witcher 3, while we speak with Roche he explained that the Temerian Army was intact and fully operational and this only works with Anais in the throne. Only a independent country (with an independent queen) could have his own army with his own banners.
2) Regardless if you killed Henselt or not, there is small mission in the outskirts of Novigrad where a mage says that Henselt was killed in the battle of Lormark (Upper Aerdin) and not in Dragon Mountains where Radovid attacked Kaedwen. This makes sense only if Henselt dies in the Witcher 2 and if you choose the Roche Path.
3) As it is said in the main post, no matter which path did you choose in the Witcher 2, in the Temerian Camp there is a guy saying that Geralt has killed kings with their commander and maybe this is not a bug. Maybe is the way that the developer has to tell us which path in the Witcher 2 is canon.
4) Giving Anais to Natalis will begin the Witch Hunt, making sense with the Witcher 3 plot.
If this is true, there is no reason for Iorveth or Saskia in the Witcher 3: they are dead. The only question should be, where is Anais? and Natalis?. Just for the record, I chose the Iorveth path, im one of those who are really disapointed with this lack of consequences in the Witcher 3, i'm only saying what is logical for me.
where is she? I don't think I ever saw anyone of note in the dungeon. I saw one NPC in a cell but there was no name or anything and you couldn't talk to them. After the quest I got the journal entry about her dying in the prison, but I never even saw her.
Did I miss something?
I don't understand why the Aryan La Valette choice is one that had two different paths in TW3. Aren't there more important ones? It doesn't even influence TW3 that much, it just determines wheter the Baroness joins you for the races or not.
No, it also affect Molly path. They are not big impacts but slighty ones. Maybe they really change Geralt's main plot but, if you allows yourself be immersed, make subtly grey the future choices. It's all up on how player feel the story: as a race to finish the game fast or stoping time to time for thinking about some behaviours.
So I've been thinking and I came up with three possible explanations, which equally frighten me:
1) There are more people who have only played TW3, than people who have played the former games. They can't know how much value CDPR took away from our decisions. In that case I feel like I've lost a company to the EA/Ubi-mainstream-focus, that was one of the last to really fulfill my needs as a mature, sophisticated and ambitious player and recipient (or at least a game, that I was so anxious about). Because that would mean that they gave disproportionately more focus on attracting the masses than on adressing their existing fans.
2) Times have changed and most people don't value choice that much anymore but thrilling storytelling. Or they would rather trade choices and consequences for thrilling storytelling. That would be something I could even understand. But it also makes me sad, because that would mean I won't get many games in the future that will give me good choices with distinctive consequences.
3) Most People are really convinced that Games in general, and especially this one, have become so big, that you can't hold up that much freedom, consequence and coherence anymore. In that case I feel like I've lost another company to the undemandingness and that the industry even convinced a lot of players to not expect somehting like that. Most sad possibility, if you ask me.
When meeting a Mage (from Povis I think )in Novigrad he casually mentions that although he doesn't like politics, he really took interest in the summit of Loc Muinne and noted that a particular witcher was aiding The Dragon Slayer. (hinting that I was supporting Pontar valley in witcher 2)
Where is this mage? In the outskirts of Novigrad? Is the one of the quest "Strangers in the night"?
Where is this mage?! I must find him and add it to my list of choices and consequences!!!!!! But proof is needed first!
Yeah found it and added it to my thread. Which path did you take?
Well, as long as we can import our saves or get asked questions in Vizima, everybody has a different canon. Some canons just matter a bit more than others : D
I certainly do not see Roche´s path as Canon at all. You meet insignificant characters (Dethmold, Henselt) that do not matter in W3 at all.
On Iorveth´s path you at least meet Philippa, very important character. If you go with Roche, you never meet her and you have no idea who she is.
Also Roche says that he went to fight with John Natalis´s army and he only does that at the end of W2 if you went with Iorveth. (You can see him in the megascope being ordered to inspect with John Natalis´s men whether Nilfgaard is about to attack or not).